Thick Concept, Thin Consensus: Value Judgments in Estimating Inequality of Opportunity

This paper argues that the prevailing practice of estimating inequality of opportunity (IOp) fails to achieve two objectives of social science indicators: informing the public and guiding policy. As a thick concept, IOp requires a non-epistemic value judgment about the effect of circumstances on effort, yet almost all current estimates follow Roemer’s (1998) contested framework. This practice results in distributive epistemic injustice and leaves the underlying value judgment without democratic legitimacy. The paper democratizes this judgment along majoritarian and deliberative lines, drawing on evidence from behavioral economics and a vignette survey with experts in economics, philosophy, and sociology.